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New York Giants

HC Tom Coughlin
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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
Sunday 2015-10-04 · 13:00 Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

NYG
37.4%
BUF
62.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.174 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.295 vs Eli Manning (NYG) +0.241 EPA/dropback
  • BUF defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NYG on 3 more days rest than BUF
  • NYG defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21
–
BUF 28
Projected margin: BUF by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NYG

Robert Ayers DE Out Hamstring
Jerome Cunningham TE Out Knee
Markus Kuhn DT Out Knee
Victor Cruz WR Out Calf
Daniel Fells TE Questionable Ankle
Ereck Flowers T Questionable Ankle
Orleans Darkwa RB Probable Knee
Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE Probable Foot
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Probable Concussion

BUF

LeSean McCoy RB Out Hamstring
John Miller G Out Groin
Sammy Watkins WR Out Calf
Marquise Goodwin WR Out Ribs
Aaron Williams S Out Neck
Preston Brown LB Probable Hamstring
Percy Harvin WR Probable Hip
Tyrod Taylor QB Probable Ankle
Dan Carpenter K Probable left Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 24
–
BUF 10

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:25 FG NYG (10:25) 3-J.Brown 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – BUF 0
  • Q1 04:38 FG BUF (4:38) 2-D.Carpenter 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. NYG 3 – BUF 3
  • Q1 00:31 TD NYG (:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 17-D.Harris for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 4. NYG 9 – BUF 3
  • Q2 10:44 TD NYG (10:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 82-R.Randle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BUF 3, slanting to middle. NYG 15 – BUF 3
  • Q4 09:46 TD BUF (9:46) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 29-Ka.Williams for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline at goal line. NYG 16 – BUF 9
  • Q4 07:54 TD NYG (7:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 23-R.Jennings for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF-30-B.Rambo was injured during the play. He is Out. Dump pass, caught at NYG 48. B.Rambo assisted off. NYG 22 – BUF 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (13:40) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to NYG 36, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-65-G.Sanborn.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 75%

    (10:25) 3-J.Brown 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (8:29) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to NYG 4, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (6:05) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to NYG 48, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 66%

    (4:38) 2-D.Carpenter 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 20 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:22) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to BUF 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 18 for 7 yards (94-M.Herzlich, 43-C.Dahl). Return credited to start of return (BUF 11). PENALTY on BUF-15-C.Hogan, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 11.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:52) 6-C.Schmidt punts 57 yards to NYG 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 17-D.Harris to NYG 24 for no gain (81-M.Easley).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:07) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to NYG 22, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 17-D.Harris to NYG 25 for 3 yards (58-R.Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-27-D.Williams, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 25.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 20%

    (6:24) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to BUF 7, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-M.Thigpen MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 7. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 7 for no gain (51-Z.DeOssie).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (2:35) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to NYG 29, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:58) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to BUF 22, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 25 for 3 yards (43-C.Dahl; 54-J.Casillas).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:24) 6-C.Schmidt punts 57 yards to NYG 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-33-R.Brooks.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 32%

    (12:38) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to BUF 7, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 11 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:14) 6-C.Schmidt punts 62 yards to NYG 32, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 17-D.Harris to NYG 47 for 15 yards (33-R.Brooks).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 18%

    (8:26) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to BUF 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (2:24) 2-D.Carpenter 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:32) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to BUF 38, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 47 for 9 yards (59-D.Kennard, 94-M.Herzlich).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%

    (12:13) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 29-Ka.Williams to NYG 1 for no gain (41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie; 55-J.Thomas). Caught in flat at NYG 6.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:47) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to BUF 49, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-M.Thigpen to NYG 43 for 8 yards (55-J.Thomas, 51-Z.DeOssie).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 85-C.Clay to NYG 48 for 7 yards (20-P.Amukamara; 54-J.Casillas). Caught in flat at 50.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 19 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.68 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 79%

    (:11) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 18-P.Harvin [98-D.Moore]. Overthrown, receiver in back of end zone.