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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 3 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(:24) 6-C.Schmidt punts 57 yards to NYG 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-33-R.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.80 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 29, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model