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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 88

New York Giants 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to NYG 48, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth -0.16 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 88, worth -5.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 46, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP