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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 29

New York Giants 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 3-J.Brown 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.11 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP