Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 66

New York Giants 16 – Buffalo Bills 3

(1:58) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to BUF 22, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 25 for 3 yards (43-C.Dahl; 54-J.Casillas).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.66 EP
54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model