Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 66

New York Giants 3 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to BUF 11, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 18 for 7 yards (94-M.Herzlich, 43-C.Dahl). Return credited to start of return (BUF 11). PENALTY on BUF-15-C.Hogan, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 11.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.74 EP
75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model