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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 12

Buffalo Bills 3 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 2-D.Carpenter 30 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 12, worth +0.37 EP
KICK +2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model