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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 3 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to NYG 29, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.56 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 30, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP