Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 81

Buffalo Bills 3 – New York Giants 9

(14:52) 6-C.Schmidt punts 57 yards to NYG 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 17-D.Harris to NYG 24 for no gain (81-M.Easley).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 81, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model