Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 53

New York Giants 16 – Buffalo Bills 3

(8:26) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to BUF 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 11-M.Thigpen.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.82 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -3.06 EP

KICK -2.00 EP

18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
82% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model