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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 1

Buffalo Bills 3 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 29-Ka.Williams to NYG 1 for no gain (41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie; 55-J.Thomas). Caught in flat at NYG 6.

The Three Options

GO +4.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.51 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 1, worth +1.27 EP
KICK +2.52 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model