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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 19 at the 27

Buffalo Bills 10 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 18-P.Harvin [98-D.Moore]. Overthrown, receiver in back of end zone.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +2.86 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -0.05 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.68 EP