Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 94

New York Giants 16 – Buffalo Bills 3

(10:47) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to BUF 49, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-M.Thigpen to NYG 43 for 8 yards (55-J.Thomas, 51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.11 EP
54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 94, worth -5.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model