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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 52

New York Giants 16 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to BUF 7, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-M.Thigpen MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 7. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 7 for no gain (51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.76 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 52, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.86 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model