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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 10 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(2:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 85-C.Clay to NYG 48 for 7 yards (20-P.Amukamara; 54-J.Casillas). Caught in flat at 50.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.68 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 55, worth -1.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model