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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 74

Buffalo Bills 3 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to NYG 22, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 17-D.Harris to NYG 25 for 3 yards (58-R.Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-27-D.Williams, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model