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Houston Texans

HC Lovie Smith
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Saturday 2022-12-24 · 14:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🥶 Cold Spread 3.0 O/U 34.0

Win Probability

HOU
42.7%
TEN
57.3%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.212 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Malik Willis (TEN) -0.506 vs Davis Mills (HOU) -0.139 EPA/dropback (TEN starting Malik Willis in place of Ryan Tannehill)
  • TEN offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 17
–
TEN 20
Projected margin: TEN by 3 Projected total: 37

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

HOU

Nico Collins WR Out Foot
Kenyon Green G Out Ankle
Brandin Cooks WR Questionable Calf
Steven Nelson CB Questionable Foot
Justin McCray C Questionable Hamstring
Chris Moore WR Questionable Foot

TEN

Dylan Cole LB Out Ankle
Nate Davis G Out Ankle
Kristian Fulton CB Out Groin
Ben Jones C Out Concussion
Terrance Mitchell CB Out Hamstring
Ryan Tannehill QB Out Ankle
Josh Thompson CB Out Concussion
Tre Avery CB Questionable Concussion
Treylon Burks WR Questionable Concussion
Aaron Brewer G Questionable Rib
Amani Hooker S Questionable Knee
Nicholas Petit-Frere T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 19
–
TEN 14

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:58 TD TEN (8:58) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 02:44 TD HOU (2:44) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills scrambles right end to TEN 1 for 5 yards (96-D.Autry). FUMBLES (96-D.Autry), recovered by HOU-28-R.Burkhead at TEN -6. TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – TEN 7
  • Q2 06:53 FG HOU (6:53) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 10 – TEN 7
  • Q3 08:59 TD TEN (8:59) (Shotgun) 7-M.Willis left tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – TEN 13
  • Q4 07:27 FG HOU (7:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 13 – TEN 14
  • Q4 02:58 TD HOU (2:58) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 13-B.Cooks for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-20-L.Johnson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. HOU 19 – TEN 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 19 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:03) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to HOU 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 26 for no gain (38-D.Harris).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:07) 11-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at TEN 40 for 6 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 22%

    (9:37) 7-M.Willis up the middle to HOU 48 for 3 yards (56-T.Booker).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:10) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 44 yards to HOU 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 41 for 9 yards (31-K.Byard).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (6:53) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:06) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 23 for 15 yards (85-C.Okonkwo, 50-J.Gibbens).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 11 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:30) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-53-B.Cashman.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 13 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 35%

    (:20) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 36 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-46-M.Cox.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 30%

    (12:30) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel left end to TEN 47 for no gain (28-J.Kalu; 96-D.Autry).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 54%

    (6:10) (Shotgun) 7-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine (2-T.Thomas).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (1:53) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 31 for 11 yards (42-J.Jones).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:24) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods to TEN 31 for 10 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (7:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:21) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 27 for 6 yards (46-M.Cox, 85-C.Okonkwo).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 38 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 54%

    (1:17) 11-C.Johnston punts 34 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-1-T.Smith.