4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 47

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(12:30) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel left end to TEN 47 for no gain (28-J.Kalu; 96-D.Autry).

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.97 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model