Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 78

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

(2:30) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to TEN 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-53-B.Cashman.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.40 EP
69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model