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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 51

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 7-M.Willis up the middle to HOU 48 for 3 yards (56-T.Booker).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.08 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model