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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 4

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 4, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP