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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 7 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(:10) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 44 yards to HOU 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 41 for 9 yards (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.11 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model