Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 19 at the 82

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

(13:03) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to HOU 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 26 for no gain (38-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.50 EP
73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 82, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model