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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 69

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods to TEN 31 for 10 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.93 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model