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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 38

Houston Texans 19 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 11-C.Johnston punts 34 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-1-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.42 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.68 EP