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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 31 for 11 yards (42-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.87 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP