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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 38

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(6:10) (Shotgun) 7-M.Willis pass incomplete short left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine (2-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.00 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model