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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 7

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 7-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 7, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP