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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 7 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 23 for 15 yards (85-C.Okonkwo, 50-J.Gibbens).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.60 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model