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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 14 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 27 for 6 yards (46-M.Cox, 85-C.Okonkwo).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.16 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model