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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 72

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 11-C.Johnston punts 38 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at TEN 40 for 6 yards (43-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.57 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model