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CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2021-10-03 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

CLE
48.2%
MIN
51.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: +0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.198 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • MIN defense: +0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIN: Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.298 vs Baker Mayfield (CLE) +0.190 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CLE 25
–
MIN 26
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CLE

Greg Newsome CB Out Calf
Christopher Hubbard T Out Triceps
Sione Takitaki LB Questionable Hamstring
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Knee
Jedrick Wills T Questionable Ankle

MIN

Ihmir Smith-Marsette WR Out Toe
Michael Pierce DT Questionable Elbow
Anthony Barr LB Questionable Knee
Kris Boyd CB Questionable Hamstring
Dalvin Cook RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 14
–
MIN 7

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:31 TD MIN (7:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 01:19 TD CLE (1:19) 27-K.Hunt left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – MIN 7
  • Q2 00:06 FG CLE (:06) 3-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 11 – MIN 7
  • Q4 06:21 FG CLE (6:21) 3-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 14 – MIN 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 97%

    (8:56) 30-C.Ham left guard to CLE 8 for 1 yard (95-M.Garrett; 22-G.Delpit).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (14:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at MIN 17 for -11 yards (97-E.Griffen).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:00) 3-J.Berry punts 58 yards to CLE 23, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-D.Felton to CLE 31 for 8 yards (48-B.Lynch).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:19) 7-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to MIN 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 68%

    (9:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Thielen [95-M.Garrett].

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:56) 3-J.Berry punts 47 yards to CLE 28, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-D.Felton to CLE 36 for 8 yards (57-R.Connelly; 44-J.Metellus).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%

    (:06) 3-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:57) 7-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to MIN 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at MIN 30 for 11 yards (36-M.Stewart).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:53) 3-J.Berry punts 58 yards to CLE 14, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-D.Felton to CLE 23 for 9 yards (48-B.Lynch).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 34%

    (6:48) 7-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to MIN 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 20 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:50) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CLE 35, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 41%

    (1:19) 7-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to MIN 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 17 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 34%

    (12:20) 3-J.Berry punts 36 yards to CLE 14, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-D.Felton to CLE 16 for 2 yards (45-T.Dye).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:17) 7-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to MIN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at MIN 30 for 2 yards (38-A.Green). PENALTY on MIN-20-H.Hand, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 28.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:56) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CLE 32, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-D.Felton to CLE 30 for -2 yards (20-H.Hand).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 73%

    (6:21) 3-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 41%

    (3:51) 7-J.Gillan punts 35 yards to MIN 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 75%

    (1:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle [97-M.Jackson].

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:08) 7-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to MIN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.