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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 7-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to MIN 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.89 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP