Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 11 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 7-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to MIN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at MIN 30 for 2 yards (38-A.Green). PENALTY on MIN-20-H.Hand, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.12 EP
56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 82, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model