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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 81

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(14:00) 3-J.Berry punts 58 yards to CLE 23, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-D.Felton to CLE 31 for 8 yards (48-B.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.38 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 38, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model