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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 47

Cleveland Browns 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 7-J.Gillan punts 35 yards to MIN 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP