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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 11 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 7-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to MIN 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at MIN 30 for 11 yards (36-M.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP