Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 20 at the 81

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cleveland Browns 11

(4:50) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CLE 35, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.12 EP
71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model