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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 78

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cleveland Browns 11

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CLE 32, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-D.Felton to CLE 30 for -2 yards (20-H.Hand).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.27 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 78, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model