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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 50

Cleveland Browns 11 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 7-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to MIN 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.01 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 50, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model