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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cleveland Browns 11

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 3-J.Berry punts 36 yards to CLE 14, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-D.Felton to CLE 16 for 2 yards (45-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.73 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model