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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 7-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to MIN 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.05 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -2.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model