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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 72

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cleveland Browns 11

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 3-J.Berry punts 58 yards to CLE 14, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-D.Felton to CLE 23 for 9 yards (48-B.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.17 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model