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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 47

Cleveland Browns 11 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 7-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to MIN 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.03 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model