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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 33

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(1:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle [97-M.Jackson].

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.59 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP