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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 30

Cleveland Browns 8 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(:06) 3-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model