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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
Sunday 2019-12-29 · 16:25 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

PHI
53.0%
NYG
47.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.071 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
NYG 20
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

PHI

Nelson Agholor WR Out Knee
Zach Ertz TE Out Ribs
Lane Johnson T Questionable Ankle
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Ankle

NYG

Mike Remmers T Out Concussion
Scott Simonson TE Out Concussion
Rhett Ellison TE Out Concussion
Corey Ballentine CB Questionable Back
Sam Beal CB Questionable Shoulder
Alec Ogletree LB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 34
–
NYG 17

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:43 FG PHI (3:43) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 3 – NYG 0
  • Q2 05:20 FG NYG (5:20) 2-A.Rosas 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PHI 3 – NYG 3
  • Q2 02:01 TD PHI (2:01) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 81-J.Perkins for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – NYG 3
  • Q3 09:50 TD NYG (9:50) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 15-G.Tate for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PHI-32-R.Douglas, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. PHI 10 – NYG 9
  • Q3 02:28 TD PHI (2:28) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – NYG 10
  • Q3 02:16 TD NYG (2:16) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – NYG 16
  • Q4 14:03 FG PHI (14:03) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 20 – NYG 17
  • Q4 13:03 TD PHI (13:03) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 26 – NYG 17
  • Q4 06:19 TD PHI (6:19) 35-B.Scott left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 33 – NYG 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 59%

    (10:22) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Goedert [53-O.Ximines].

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%

    (8:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to PHI 18, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (3:43) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 19 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:47) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to PHI 34, Center-69-C.Holba. 84-G.Ward to PHI 40 for 6 yards (31-M.Thomas). PENALTY on PHI-57-T.Edwards, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 16 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:43) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to NYG 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-D.Scott to NYG 32 for -3 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 14 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to PHI 19, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 13 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 38%

    (10:13) 1-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to NYG 3, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-22-S.Jones.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to PHI 49, Center-69-C.Holba. 84-G.Ward to PHI 46 for -3 yards (18-D.Scott).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 33%

    (7:33) 1-C.Johnston punts 34 yards to NYG 14, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (5:20) 2-A.Rosas 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-C.Holba, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 84%

    (2:41) (No Huddle) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to NYG 24 for 2 yards (99-L.Williams; 44-M.Golden).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 35%

    (:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to PHI 10, Center-69-C.Holba, downed by NYG-17-C.Core.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:10) 1-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to NYG 41, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 61%

    (10:29) 8-D.Jones scrambles right end ran ob at PHI 20 for 17 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 17 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:20) 1-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to NYG 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-G.Tate to NYG 19 for 8 yards (50-D.Riley; 57-T.Edwards).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 59%

    (5:38) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 87-S.Shepard (34-C.LeBlanc).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 73%

    (14:03) 4-J.Elliott 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to PHI 34, Center-69-C.Holba, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (10:13) 1-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to NYG 14, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-G.Tate ran ob at NYG 31 for 17 yards (47-N.Gerry).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (8:00) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right end to NYG 39 for no gain (34-C.LeBlanc).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (2:14) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to NYG 37, Center-45-R.Lovato. 15-G.Tate to NYG 37 for no gain (22-S.Jones).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.72 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (:14) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 12-C.Latimer to PHI 4 for 9 yards (23-R.McLeod, 37-M.Epps). PHI-74-D.Hall was injured during the play.