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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 1-C.Johnston punts 34 yards to NYG 14, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.83 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP