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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 13

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.52 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 13, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model