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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:43) 1-C.Johnston punts 41 yards to NYG 35, Center-45-R.Lovato. 18-D.Scott to NYG 32 for -3 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 76, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model